Hey Friend, 

 

Back in early 2016, 

 

I stumbled upon a YouTube video from a guy called Tony Seba titled: 

 

“Clean Disruption: Why Conventional Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030” 

 

He spoke about the impact the following technologies would have on the future:

 

 

At the 24 minute mark, this slide grabbed my attention.

 

 

This slide highlighted how many moving parts there are in an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle vs an Electric Vehicle (EV).

 

An ICE vehicle has over 2,000 moving parts.

Whereas an EV typically has 20 to 30.

 

Thanks to my mechanical engineering studies, I understood that more moving parts generally means more friction, more energy loss, and lower efficiency. 

 

More parts also means more things that can wear out, break down, and require maintenance over time. 

 

With this realisation, it felt blindingly obvious to me that EV’s would become the future. 

 

But in early 2016, 

 

EV’s were still expensive. 

 

And very much in the ‘early adopter’ phase (see image below).  

 

 

Around the same time, 

 

I’d been frequenting a stock market forum called ‘HotCopper’. It was here I read the threads and discovered new investment opportunities. 

 

There was a company with the sticker code ‘PLS’ that appeared in the ‘most talked about’ section. 

 

Turns out, PLS was a lithium company based in Western Australia sitting on one of the largest hard-rock lithium deposits in the world. 

 

And what was the key ingredient needed in an electric vehicle?

 

Lithium.

 

So after doing my own research, 

 

I decided to buy 2,000 shares in PLS at 71.5c per share. 

 

It was the 23rd of May, 2016 (10 years ago).

 

Now I must admit, this was more of a ‘speculation’ than an investment. 

 

Because PLS was not yet mining. They were still in the feasibility phase. And in the process of raising capital so they could build their mine site. So they were not yet making money. 

 

But, 

 

They were sitting on a world-class resource in a friendly mining jurisdiction. They had laid the groundwork. They were led by a pioneering managing director in Ken Brinsden. 

 

And I truly believed EV’s were the future, and hence lithium would be highly sought after in the years to come.  

 

What I didn’t know at the time was just how long it can take for your thesis to come to fruition. 

 

And how long it took for a mine project to go from the ‘exploration phase’ to the ‘mining phase’. 

 

My timing wasn’t great…

 

I first bought it at the peak of the ‘speculation phase’ (see image below). A trap for young players. 

 

 

But as my conviction in my thesis increased, I put more skin in the game.

 

As the project got de-risked, I put more skin in the game.

 

By June 2018, PLS had officially commissioned their mine site and were making money.  

 

And by the end of 2018, 

 

I had 40,000 shares in PLS at an average price of 70c per share (I’d invested $28,000). 

 

It had felt like a long ride so far, but what I didn’t know was the journey was only just getting started. 

 

And we were about to hit some major turbulence!  

 

During the COVID crash of March 2020, 

 

PLS closed at 14c per share. 

 

I was down 80% ($22,390)

 

It was painful to see my position beaten down so badly. But I never sold. I still believed in the future prospects of PLS. 

 

The company had already got through the hardest phase. They had a strong balance sheet. So they were positioned to ride out the short-term pain in the markets.  

 

My biggest regret was not having the courage to add more to my position during this time (investing is easy in hindsight).

 

What I didn’t yet have, was first-hand experience of how market cycles work. 

 

Hard times create good times, and good times create hard times. 

 

(Highly recommend reading Howard Marks book ‘Mastering the Market Cycle’). 

 

Over the next two years, 

 

Lithium entered a ‘bull phase’, and the stock price went ballistic. Going from the low of 14c during COVID to $5.50 per share! 

 

PLS had become a money-printing machine!

 

 

By this stage, I had 45,264 shares and they were worth $248,952! 

 

Happy days.

 

But just like hard times sow the seeds of good times, good times sow the seeds of hard times… with spodumene and lithium carbonate prices hitting record highs, everyone wanted a piece of the pie. 

 

And with new mine projects flooding the market, this created an ‘oversupply’ of lithium. Which caused the price of spodumene and lithium carbonate to crash. And marked the beginning of the next lithium ‘bear market’ phase. 

 

From the peak of $5.50 in November 2022, I watched the share price drop down to $1.14 by the 2nd of June 2025…

 

Ouch.  

 

By this stage, I had 60,000 shares and was down around $8,000. 

 

It sucks seeing your wealth get decimated (on paper). 

 

But I knew the company was the strongest it had ever been, and the share price had been beaten down far too much. 

 

And that’s what happens in markets. 

 

 

Fear drives markets down. And greed drives markets up. With time and experience, you can start to position yourself to profit from these extremes. 

 

I’m ten years into my investing journey and only just starting to appreciate this. You can learn theory from reading a book. But experience is always the greatest teacher. 

 

With my understanding of where we were in the lithium cycle, I invested another $20,000 in at around the $1.30 to $1.50 mark. 

 

I was kicking myself I didn’t have more cash available to go much harder! 

 

Another investing mistake on my behalf… 

 

Not having enough dry powder (cash) ready to swing big when opportunities arise!  

 

And as sure as the sunrise follows the sunset, lithium entered a new ‘bull phase’. 

 

Since its low of $1.14 in June 2025, it’s now at an all-time high of $6.50 (at this time of writing).

 

What has been the catalyst for the current lithium bull cycle? 

 

EV demand has still been growing at a high rate. But what’s really driven it, is unexpected surprises to the demand/supply equation of lithium. 

 

 

 

 

Not to mention the massive tailwind of the oil crisis, which sent fuel prices soaring and has accelerated EV adoption into the mainstream. (source)

 

 

As a result of these strong tailwinds, the price of spodumene concentrate (lithium ore extracted from hard rock) has shot up from its lows. 

 

And PLS is once again printing money.

 

 

We now have 70,000 shares in PLS at an average price of $1.20 per share. By far our biggest position. It’s happy days right now while we ride the current lithium bull market. 

 

It’s great to see the seeds I planted 10 years ago flourish into a beautiful ‘green’ money tree.

 

But as I’ve mentioned, 

 

Good times sow the seeds of hard times. Which means the next lithium ‘bear cycle’ will be just around the corner (but no one can tell you when). 

 

Which means our wealth (and psychology) will dip again. And there will be another opportunity to build our position at attractive prices (if enough courage and cash is available). 

 

Does this story make me a superior investor? 

 

When things are going well (like they are now), it’s easy to fool myself into thinking so… 

 

But the real answer is ‘no’. 

 

I do acknowledge myself for having the foresight to make the connection between what I’d learned in my engineering degree, and the slide I saw in that YouTube video. 

 

And for putting skin in the game. And for holding strong through the storms. And for continuing to add to our position over time. 

 

But ‘luck’ has also played a major role here. 

 

There’s an element of ‘right place at the right time’ in this story. There’s no way I could have known how world events would unfold in our favour. 

 

But I did position ourselves to profit in a big way if my thesis was right. 

 

You only need a handful of correct decisions in your investing lifetime to do well.

 

This has been one of them for me.    

 

Finally, 

 

Please don’t take this newsletter piece as investment advice. Don’t go out and buy this company because I have. What makes a good investment for me is not the same as for you. 

 

I’m sharing this story to reflect, to educate, and to share some of the principles I’ve learned over the past ten years of this wild ride.

 

I wonder what the next ten years will have in store?  

 

Have a great day,